| |
| About the USTA - Publications - Services - Contact US - USTA Forms - Home |
 |
|
Pandycapping
HARNESSING WINNERS (This column was originally published in Harness Eye) If you do a search of handicapping books on Amazon.com, you'll find plenty of options-for thoroughbreds. But when you search for harness handicapping books, you'll find a few, increasingly rare, out-of-print books that were written over 30 years ago. But DRF PRESS, the book publishing arm of the esteemed Daily Racing Form, has finally published a harness handicapping book. Written by longtime Meadowlands track handicapper Dave Brower, Harnessing Winners: The Complete Guide to Handicapping Harness Races, has a list price of $14.95. The 131 page paperback book consists of 15 chapters, including Barn Changes, Warm Ups, Handicapping 2-Year Olds, Trips, Replays, and Track Bias, and others. It's interesting to note that two of the chapters are written by contributing writers. Since Brower considers himself more of a big track specialist, he enlisted the aid of two writers to cover half-mile tracks. There aren't that many books that contain entire chapters written by someone other than the book's author, but this concept works well for Harnessing Winners. Giwner, an amateur harness driver, and editor of Harness Eye, has also owned harness horses. His chapter, Yonkers Raceway, offers good insight into trip handicapping and is well illustrated. Another chapter, Northfield Park, is written by Keith Gisser, the publicity director of the track with the "flying turns." This is also an interesting chapter that covers a critical handicapping element, Purses, Class, and Conditions. Gisser also mentions Driver Angles, and talks about how "driver-style" is often overlooked when assessing a horse's chances at Northfield. I thought this was a good point. Many players simply look at each driver's statistics for positive driver changes. But Gisser points out how a change in driver style can also produce a winning effort. For example, a switch from an aggressive driver to a more patient one can result in a longshot win from off the pace. The first chapter of the book is an interview with Brian Sears. This was a good idea that works well for the book. Sears, who has won 9 straight driving titles at the Meadowlands, details how he prepares for the card and covers a lot of things like handicapping, driver's choice, warm ups, use of the whip, etc. Sears mentions that although he'd love to win a Hambletonian, or Little Brown Jug, he doesn't feel that his career should be defined by these prestigious races if he doesn't. He uses Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino as an example. The Miami Dolphins only got to the Super Bowl once during the Marino era, and did not win. But that loss shouldn't alter the fact that Marino was one of the greatest players ever. I couldn't agree more. Sports is a team effort. You can be the greatest harness driver ever, but you're not going to win a Hambletonian unless you have a top horse trained by a top trainer. Those of you who've read Dave Brower's comments, which are published in the track program, and on the internet at thebigm.com, know that he does a great job of analyzing horses coming off qualifiers. I don't get a chance to watch the qualifiers anymore, so I'm always interested to see what Brower has to say, especially when young horses qualify. In this book, Brower shows how he caught some good overlays on horses that had qualified well. This is interesting because most handicappers are totally lost when it comes to interpreting qualifying races. Although most of us can't get to the qualifiers to watch them in person, Brower suggests getting to the track early and watching the qualifiers on video tape replays at one of the replay kiosks. I thought this chapter was important for modern day harness handicapping. Years ago, horses rarely won off qualifiers. But that has changed. I don't have statistics on this, but more horses win off qualifiers now than they did years ago. Certainly more two year olds and first time starters in general, win at first asking now than they used to. With so much money on the line in sire stakes and other stakes races for two and three year olds, some trainers find that they don't have the luxury of racing a horse into shape. There's a lot of emphasis on actually watching the races in this book. This is a significant and often over-looked part of the handicapping process. Most harness handicapping books I've read almost completely ignore the fact that we are able to watch the races, either in person, or on the replays. Handicapping is viewed only as a paper and pen exercise of analyzing past performances. But in order to get the real picture of how a race was run, you have to watch the race. I've personally bet on hundreds of overlay winners that I bet solely because something caught my eye when watching the horse's prior races. There are so many things that don't show up in the past performances. For example, I've seen many horses that are 3 or even 4 wide around the first turn, but this does not show in the pps. I've seen horses that were parked almost the entire first half, but the pps only show an out at the quarter. I've even seen horses that left the gate fast, were parked the opening turn, then took back into a tuck, and they didn't get an outside symbol in the pps. These moves are important and if you are aware of them, you can hit some big overlays and longshot winners. And of course when horses are shuffled back, or blocked, you have to be watching to know that. With video tape replays available on the internet, and often on cable or satellite TV, we don't have to be at the track to see the race. The USTA now has video replays available on its website. Other subjects that are covered in Harnessing Winners are shippers, barn changes, tote board action, and reading between the lines. Overall it's a good guide to harness handicapping that covers all the basics and then some. My only criticism is that I would've liked to have seen a chapter about final time and fractional analysis. However, the author is obviously more of a visual handicapper and you could make a case that time is relative to pace. One thing that you clearly understand by reading this book is that your chances of being a winner at the harness races improve dramatically if you are willing to do the work. Many players think that they can just stroll into the track 10 minutes before post time, pick up a program, and start winning all the races. But in Harnessing Winners, Dave Brower shows that if you do your homework, watch the races or replays, look for certain key situations, be patient and value minded, your chances of winning go way up. It's just like anything else in life. There's the easy way, and there's the right way. As Brower points out in his book, "The people that do their homework and analyze the races thoughtfully will always be more successful." To learn more about Bob Pandolfo's handicapping theories, check out his handicapping page at www.ustrotting.com or his www.trotpicks..com website. Or write to Bob Pandolfo, 3386 Creek Rd, Northampton, PA. 18067.
SHARP
HORSES
TRACK VARIANTS, HOT RACES, HOT PACES at Meadowlands
EXPLANATION of TRACK VARIANTS and HOT RACES, HOT PACES One of the regular features of the weekly Sulky Sport newsletter is the Track Variants, Hot Races, and Hot Paces. This section will include information for Yonkers Raceway in New York, and the Meadowlands in New Jersey. TRACK VARIANTS The Track Variant is measured in 5ths of a second. Five fifths equals one full second. Let me explain how to use these variants. For example, let's look at Monday, Dec. 16, at Yonkers. We type the date as 12/16: -1, hot paces 2, 7, hot races 10, 12.....Here's what it all means: On 12/16, the track variant was -1. That means that the track was one-fifth of a second slower than average (or par). You can use this to adjust each horse's final time. For instance, in the first race that night, Impish Gal won the mile-and-a-sixteenth race in 2:10.2. Since the track was one-fifth of a second slow, we subtract the -1 variant. 2:10.2 becomes 2:10.1. If the track variant had been -7, we'd make the time 2:09. If the variant had been +5, we'd make it 2:11.2. We can use the variants to adjust the final time. The variant enables us to accurately compare horse's times from different evenings. During the winter, the track surface can change sharply from night to night. The temperature varies greatly at times, as does the wind, rain, and snow. The track variant gives us an intelligent way to gauge the speed of the surface. Sometimes you'll notice that a race went surprisingly
slow for the class. Just look at the track variant. If the
variant was -10, you know that the track was very slow that
night (2 seconds slower than average). If, on the other hand,
the variant was +5, then you know that the race that went
slow was not a very sharp effort by the winner. HOT RACES Hot Races are a terrific handicapping tool that
I've been using for many years. Basically, a Hot Race, is
a race that went exceptionally fast for the class. If it reads,
hot races 2, 9, that means that the 2nd and 9th races that
night were Hot Races. In order for a race to qualify as a
Hot Race, it must have been 1). exceptionally fast for the
class, 2). had a much faster than average early pace for the
class. Here's what I look for in these Hot Races: Horses that
raced first-over, without cover, and finished within 5 lengths
of the winner are very sharp! Any horse that showed speed,
or disputed the pace, and didn't tire too badly is in good
shape. Sometimes horses that finished well behind the winner
in a Hot Race, come back to run big in their next start or
two. Also look for horses dropping down out of a Hot Race.
HOT PACES This is not as strong as a Hot Race, but still a good thing to keep track of. These races had a faster than average early pace. Consequently, any horses that was used dueling for the lead, prompting the pace, or setting the pace, was used hard early. A horse that gets parked out pushing a Hot Pace, had a very tough trip. I do the variants myself, using par time tables,
and final time projection. (I project how fast I think each
race will go, then compare it to the final times, then average
it out.) If you have any questions about this feature, or any thing else on this webpage, please E-mail me, and I'll be glad to answer your questions.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Copyright ©2009 The United States Trotting Association. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in any form. Use of this site signifies your agreement to the terms of use. Maintained online by webmaster@ustrotting.com |
