Welcome to the Hambletonian Day BLOG!You can see the Hambletonian Final on TV but there is a whole card of great racing you're going to miss. Luckily, we're watching all the action. So, the USTA has Tim Bojarski, Jerry Connors, and Keith Gisser, watching from 12:30-4:30 p.m. EDT, and their Hambletonian Day Blog will be your eyes and ears for the Hambletonian Oaks, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Mistletoe Shalee, U.S. Pacing Championship, Nat Ray, and, of course, the $1.5 million Hambletonian. ***** REFRESH YOUR SCREEN OFTEN! ***** |
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jerry: i didn't realize it was time to go -- thanks to Tim and Keith, who did some very good handicapping today. Posted at: 4:33 Tim: As always, it's a pleasure working along side such professionals as yourselves and I am glad to have had the opportunity to once again do it. Thanks to everyone who logged on and followed the races with us. Thank you and good luck! Posted at: 4:33 jerry: That's pretty modest for Elliott. Andover Hall gets $1.125 million credit for this race, and $375,000 for Danae, which i think moves him to #1 trotting stallion for money this year, or certainly just right there with Angus Hall, who sired 3rdplace finisher Laddie. Posted at: 4:32 Still here after all: In the late double, use Southwind Lynx with Palone Ranger and Spirit Of A Shark Posted at: 4:31 Tim: Gentlemen, if we are to break now, do you have any spot bets you can leave behind for those who will continue to follow the rest of the card? Posted at: 4:30 Keith : Hammond-- a typo, sorry. Owners mentioned he had won 17 straight trips postward including qualifiers and he woul dkeep racing the rest of the year. Gentlemen, it has been a remarkably fast four hours. A pleasure working with you and thanks to everybody who logged on to follow the Hambletonian with us. Tim, Gerry...be well and Enjoyu Every Sandwich! Posted at: 4:29 Keith: Hammons: Is this horse great Elliott; That's yet to be seen Seibel: Can you compare him to Valley Victory Elliott: DOnato's like a bigger version of VV and he's smarter.He's a very professional horse. He does what he has to do. Soemtimes, he don't do no more than that (sic). We'll probably get called in for a slow half. IF the roles were reversed, we would have been chasing her and the results would have been reversed, too. Posted at: 4:26 jerry: That's a nice exacta -- $22! Posted at: 4:26 Keith: Jerry- the fine for it at M1 is typically $250. By my math, Ron's winning 5% is $37,500 and I think he migh tbe in libe for a tip of at least a few bucks. He can afford it. Posted at: 4:24 Tim: Donato Hanover-$4.00 Ex-2-3 $22.00 Tri-2-3-7 $124.60 Posted at: 4:24 jerry: If Pierce gets fined, the owners ought to pay it for him. Posted at: 4:22 Keith: Pierce: It's great to win this for Stevie (Elliott) We were rubbing horses together in the seventies. I tapped him a couple times and he responded. When the filly came at me, I knew what I had. Posted at: 4:22 Tim: 2-3-7-9 order of finish. Pampered Princess was off the board. Posted at: 4:21 jerry: Great drive by Pierce, letting PP go by a bit early turn, then moving right out and just disheartening her a little bit by coming rightr back on her and rebuffing her. She tried very hard, but tired. A fair result. Adrian Chip good but second-best. Posted at: 4:21 Keith: That's how good you are. Does Pierce get fined for a slow half? Its a bad rule, imo, but they usually enforce it at M1 Posted at: 4:20 Keith: Oh, man.PP, first over into a 58-second half is absolute death, I don't care who you are or how could you are. Gotta be the slowest half since a rainy day in Du Quoin. Posted at: 4:20 Tim: They are at the wire in 1.53.2, Donato Hanover is a Hambletonian Champion! Posted at: 4:19 Tim: They are at the 3/4 in 1.26, the first four are 4-2-3-8 Posted at: 4:18 Tim: They are at the 1/2 in 58.2, the first four are 2-3-4-1 Posted at: 4:18 Keith: A note- my bumbers with the 3 should have been the 4, FYI. Posted at: 4:17 Tim: They are at the 1/4 in 28.2, the first four are 3-1-2-4 Posted at: 4:17 Keith: I am well familiar with the term, now that I can decipher it, lol. Years ago U had a mare who made a habir of jumping the hubrail, and an old pacer who tried topull himself up at the paddock,so I have used them on both sides..here they comne. To you Posted at: 4:17 jerry: Starter's called for the field! Posted at: 4:16 Keith: Gerry, it may be but I don't think Webmaster Ron will pull the plug. We should be able to get the complete post-race stuff. I am gonna watch on NBC and we can see if we get any different interviews or quotes. Posted at: 4:16 jerry: Keith, i just put on my "Mbrs Only" jacket from 20 years ago. A "Murphy blind," by the way, completely blocks out the vision of the eye over which it is put -- if you're not familiar with the term. I'm 2-3-4-8 here, but the other two guys have been better handicappers than i today. And gents, if our cutoff time is 4:30, this may be the last race we talk about on the Blog. Posted at: 4:13 Keith: Donato just dropped from 8-5 to 6-5..a big drop considering the size of the pools. The filly is 2-1 Posted at: 4:12 Tim: I am going with breeding here: the Andover Hall, followed by the Andover Hall, followed by the Andover Hall. Pampered Princess, in front. Posted at: 4:10 Keith: Tim-it may be a state rule. But the states can't even have consistent claim announcement policies-- we can't announce them prior to races in Ohio. Speaking of equipment changes-- Donato goes without the mbr--I know now- Its a Murphy Blind-right (just was on NBC). I thought racing without his mbr meant he had been gelded (trying to be humorous but not to blatant here, boys) Posted at: 4:09 Tim: Jerry, I believe you were right on when you said she got confused. Pippi trotted to the front and cleared, and when she did not see anymore horses to catch it looked like she kind of pulled herself up. Although she did throw in a few steps on the backside going to the quarter before Gingras settled her down. Posted at: 4:07 Keith: I am gonna go to Pampered Princess to win the Hambletonian, but I am not 100% sold. This is really a value play-- I think they are equal, and she is the better price. My tri would like this 23/23(10)/2367(10). It's either a $12 or $16 play-- my brain is fried right now, lol. Posted at: 4:06 Tim: Keith, could it be a state rule (I think it is in NY) that they have to make public any equipment changes to the public? Perhaps that's the only reason they do it. It would make sense that the state would complicate things as well as make us pay taxes. Posted at: 4:05 jerry: Good answer, Keith -- thanks. Posted at: 4:05 jerry: The director of the PA Sire Stakes is happy a PA-sired filly won the Oaks -- Danae. Can another Andover Hall filly win here (Pampered Princess)? Posted at: 4:04 Keith: Jerry- but what's worse is when they read that the supe rpaid $136K but there was only $50K in the pool (or $15K, theoretically). It makes it sound like someone is cheating. It's impressive, and in the lottery jackpot age, it may be necesary, but in the doping/cheating world of ALL sports, it allows people to draw incorrect, negative conclusions. It just isn't a fan-friendly thing to do. We just had a big super at Northfield and I got an e-mail questioning the payoff. Turns out there were two winning $1 tickets, but one was in Canada, so with the exhange rate figured in, there were two differtne payoffs. Meantime, we advertise a $6k $1 price, but the pool is $15k and the gy wondered (validly) if he got cheated. Posted at: 4:03 jerry: Tim, even if you're aren't totally objective: what did it look like happened to Pippi W? She looked unsure once she got to the lead. Posted at: 4:00 Keith: Tim-- I am not sure if it helps the casual fan (or even the serious h-capper)> The abbreviations make it worse. Example- I read Xyz Hanover's hopples are out two inches. Is he going to be freer going or is he going to run in the first turn? If I go froma Critt Davis overcheck to a Crabb, who is going to know what the heck I am even talking about? We list this, imo, useless stuff, but don't list whether a driver is using an offset sulky, which is a huge positive angle and has been proven so over and over. Just my two cents. I ignore the stuff and for the casual fan, it just makes it that much tougher--our form isn't easy to read as it is. Posted at: 3:59 jerry: ...and to echo an earlier point: what's more impressive -- "the 10-cent Superfecta paid $6826.35," or "the $2 Superfecta paid $136,527.00"? (Except the latter number shows that the favorites caved in.) Posted at: 3:58 Tim : And tough luck for me and my $10 win ticket at 17-1!!! Posted at: 3:58 jerry: Keith, my level of handicapping can't properly figure equipment changes at a track i don't watch every night, so i can't help you much there. As for Possess The Magic, she was hard used to make the top and hda an immediate challenger, but the fractions weren't that much -- disappointed. i picked Danae second, and i couldn't be gladder for that other George and sister Brenda. Good race for Danae last week. Tough luck for Pippi -- she did seem a litte lost on the lead, was threatening to break for a couple of strides, then finally did -- tough luck for her connections. Posted at: 3:55 Tim : I am assuming your disdain is with the abbreviations? That's a good point, but do you think the casual race fan (non-horseman) would know what the different pieces of equipment were or what the change could affect, if they were spelled out in full? Posted at: 3:55 Keith: Tetrick is 1-9 to beat Case if he stays healthy. He is averaging 100 wins a month...that puts him on pace for 1200, beating the record by, what, 123? He needs to averag "only" 75 a month the rest of the way, and with Freehold opening, he can double up here. The question is what happens when the Grand Circuit goes to Delaware and The Red Mile-- a lot fo money to go for, but will he race as much? Message to Tim Tetrick- If you read this, Northfield races Monday and Wednesday of Jug week (and the Saturday before they start, too), lol. We also race four straight days at the end of the year-- 12/26-27-28-29. Just a thought Posted at: 3:54 Keith: Pet Peeve time-- The M1 crawl shows equipment changes. Many cappers feel that is helpful, I and I agree. I also think I am pretty knowledgeable. But I do not watch M1 that often. How can anybody help but get confused when a horse is +ch ov or the 10 horse is +mbr. I know what - 4 shoes means, at least. Anyone want to help? Posted at: 3:51 Tim : What are the chances Tetrick can eclipse Case's record win total by the end of the year? Posted at: 3:50 Keith: She is now schooling a pacer behind a gate while miced in John Campbell's racebike-- nice bit. I think people don't realize how accessible this sport can be. Heck, even I csan drive in a race..albeit not very well. Posted at: 3:50 Keith: Switched over to the NBC feed--they are putting Donna Barton (the ex-jock who does on -track interviews) in a race-bike. Should be a great pice. Starting her in a two-seater jog cart Posted at: 3:48 jerry: running commentary not very good: leavers, then PTM to the top at the half, immediately challenged by FFY -- both with little in the stretch, Pippi W made an easy early lead but then got confused on the front and ran, and Danae had the most late. 6 clear, 8-9-1 underneath. Posted at: 3:45 Tim : That is 720 wins this year for Tetrick!!! Posted at: 3:44 Keith: Well I was right about pressure--just didn't think it would be my horse doing the pressuring. Danae (they pronounce it de ny, but the young ladies I know with the name all pronounce de nay or da nay) inherits the wind, err, win. Posted at: 3:44 jerry: Pippi made the lead, but then runs ... Danae had the most trot late for the win in 1:54.2...PTM with little resistance ... maybe 2-8-1 Posted at: 3:43 jerry: here comes the PTM move, and Falls For You is going right with her ... 27.3 ... PTM strung out to the half for the top, with FFY uncovered and chall in 56.1 Posted at: 3:41 jerry: the Oaks ... 10 off the gate ... 7 and 9 leaving Posted at: 3:40 formerly Knute: Knute! Why did you bring him up? Isn't it enough i'm suffering from not picking winners today -- do you have to bring up past failures too? :) Posted at: 3:39 jerry: The Guru, Gurfein, probably would enjoy this one a little more than usual, since Possess The Magic is a daughter of Self Possessed, the superfast trotter he trained. And Brittany Farms -- have they won anything much in the last couple of years? What a run for Brittany! Posted at: 3:38 Keith: Gerry, assuming you mean PTM, not PP (Posess the Magic) I look for her to make that move, but I think she takes pressure from several.. she is a very ncie filly but has folded under pressure at times..okay not folded, but given it up a bit Posted at: 3:37 Tim : As was previously noted, I am selecting Pippiwhitestockings in the Hambo Oaks. Somebody has to love a long shot so I will take the job. She took a big step forward last week and may have gelled in time. I know Possess The Magic was an easy elim winner, but I am not sold on 4-5. Just a couple Oaks notes: Ron Gurfein has never won this stake and the Jeff Gregory/Jona Czernyson team did just 2 years ago with Jalopy. Jerry I see Knute is in the house. Posted at: 3:37 jerry: Keith and i don't see this race the same way. i think PP makes one pace-controlling move and controls things, and Falls On You might be first-over. i'd recommend Danae and Vlucanize as the other "under" horses. Posted at: 3:34 Keith: Oaks in 9--Going for $750K. I think the fractions might be hot up top and the race Falls For You. Put Posess The Magic, Vulcanize and Wishful Me (Cleveland owned by Bill Peshina's Royal Wire Products) underneath. Posted at: 3:31 Keith: No problem, Tim. Like I said atthe outset, I have been slumping lately, so I can't afford to ignore any winner Posted at: 3:29 Tim : My oversight on Rob Roy. That one was a good price, too. Posted at: 3:27 Keith: The $24 tri investment could easily have been a $6 box play, quadrupling the return rate. Posted at: 3:25 Keith: Not exactly off the schnide, Tim. I did have Rob Roy Mattgregor earlier-- I actually bet on him. Posted at: 3:23 (very) hoppled: That $24 Tri investment returned $229.80, Keith. Good job! i thought Maltese Artist was much better on a half-miler than a big track, and he was behind the winner, but he still was good here. In fact, i picked the Mister Big-Maltese Artist exacta -- in the Levy Final. Only about 3 months early. As far as Lis Mara, you need tactical diversity at the very top, and that seems to be the chink in his armor -- you go tough trips, and somebody will get to you off a trip. Looked like 3/4 length between first and second, and between second and third. Maybe my luck will change with the trotters. Posted at: 3:23 Tim : It wasn't Warkentin's fault. The right tote board that displays the EX prices has a non-functioning block of lights that illuminate what would be the $100 portion of your payoffs. So instead of seeing 117.00, it only displays 17.00. It has been a problem all day. Just an FYI. Posted at: 3:19 Tim : "Not Picking Enough Winners" got off the schnyde with the winner and the ex. 9.20 for first and 117.00 for the ex. I finally got a quote from Tetrick, but it was on San Remo Kosmos. There were no comments from the Southwind Tempo race. Posted at: 3:17 Keith: Okay-e Warkentin misspoke Exacta was $117. That's more like it. Posted at: 3:15 Keith: Mister Big (trained and driven by Buckeyes Virgil Morgan Jr and David Miller) Take that you Pennsylvania scoundrel. Lifetime mark. 1:47.4 Mister Big pays $9.20 Exacta 5-6 $17.00 (seems short) Tri 5-6-3 $229.80 Pcik 4 10 cent I think was $81.90 Posted at: 3:15 Keith: 1:47.4 Mister Big- Maltese Artist and Lis Mara (in a photo) over Total Truth. Guess I didn't need all thos extra horses in the try, lol. Should be a decent tri- and, true to my word, I didn't play it. Posted at: 3:12 Keith: Lis Mara grinding top 3/4 Totla Truth following 3-4-2-5 1:21.3 Lis Mara spriunys off here come sMr Big Posted at: 3:10 Keith: Mypanmar first up at 3/8 Half in 53.3 2-7-6-1 Posted at: 3:10 Keith: The quarter is 7-6-1-2 in 25.3 Good start- Maltese and Boulder Creek fast off gate Posted at: 3:09 Keith: There is a delay behind, but they are now going to the gate in pursuit of a world record in the USPC Posted at: 3:08 Tim : Going to post, there is a reformation. Posted at: 3:08 Not Sure I am Right: Gerry PP may get that could a trip, but I don;t think she needs it. She has consistently done a lot of work and has been consistently a tick or two faster than the colt Posted at: 3:03 jerry: Prices so far $4.20, $3.40, $5.00, $17.80, $6.60, $10.40, $11.00, $7.20. On the Hambo -- do you think Pampered P will get as good a trip as she got last week, and do you think she needs that trip to win? Posted at: 3:01 Not Picking Enough Winners: Mr Big is getting sharp but has been up and down all year. Maltese Artist hasn't been bad lately--just not as good as he was-- and he is owned by a guy from right down the street-- Jim Koran. Double world champ. He ciuld jump up at any time. And although he has been racing on or near the front, Buckeye One can race from behind and has a wicked closing kick. Might play a tri that looks like this: 3/5/6 w3/5/6 1/3/4/5/6 I think that's a $24 play, but that's why self serves have a preview button, lol Posted at: 3:00 jerry: i'm not ripping into anybody until i start to pick some winners. Margins in the 8th seemed to be Corleone by 1 1/4 lengths over Equinox Bi, a half-length ahead of San Remo Kosmos, who had a hear on Vivid Photo, who in turn had a neck on Med Vac. But the winning margin may be deceiving -- Corleone looked strong. Posted at: 2:58 Tim : I picked Lis Mara going in because he is back on the track he loves. And I think the mile With Anticipation went a couple of races ago could be equalled or eclipsed here. Posted at: 2:56 Not Steve Irwin: Tim-- Clyde is a great guy. He doesn't travel as much as he used to. When I did it full time, I picked up a lot of his old work. Have appeared at several tracks as The Handciapping Herpetologist, besides the Meadowlands, but mostly do/did college programs Posted at: 2:55 jerry: Lis M has had some bad luck in his defeats; his lack of early foot has been costly. i hope he doesn't have to go first-over here, because someone could again trip out on him. With luck, Lis Mara in 1:47.1 for me. By the way, Tim, good for you for staying with Corleone -- what a big mile that was! That horse gets much more respect from me now. Posted at: 2:54 Not Dave Brower: D. Brower: I just talked with some fans and tehy and I think the track is getting faster. they are talking worlkd record in the US Pacing Championship Posted at: 2:54 Tim : Reptile display? They have a great reptile display in PENNSYLVANIA at Clyde Peelings Reptiland. Jerry.... Posted at: 2:52 Looking For Value: Watching the Nat Ray replay and Jaded making the break, I will go back to my rant about the lack of a charted line. It was Equinox B who Roger ran up on with Vivid Photo in early stretch. $342K US Pacing Championship next. Mister Biug the early fave, but Lis Mara also 2-1. He will be about even money or 4-5, I would think (Lis Mara) Trying to get him beat for a price. Any thoughts-- we have 15 minutes to post Posted at: 2:51 jerry: San Remo Kosmos raced at the PA county fairs last year for Hammer; Vivid Photo started his career at a PA fair; and fifth Med Vac raced at a PA fair at two, too. Posted at: 2:50 Keith: Hope this doesn't get me in trouble but my son, an aspiring journalist, has started a sports blog called The Gissing Booth. He attened the Hambletonian witn me the year I did my reptile display there as part of the family activities--he got to see the race, I didn't, lol. There is some funny stuff and some stuff that needs work..he will talk some harness racing in the future. It's a long link: http://web.mac.com/TheGissingBooth/iWeb/Site%202/The%20Gissing%20Booth/The%20Gissing%20Booth.html check it out. Posted at: 2:47 jerry: All hail the winner -- outside a long way, tucked, then with powerful strides home. Hammer had traffic troubles again, and was unfortunate to be fifth on the rail down the back. Posted at: 2:45 Tim : 45-1 shot Equinox B was second and 18-1 shot San Remo Kosmos third. Win 6-7.20 Ex 6-12 221.00 Tri 6-12-2 1155.60. Posted at: 2:43 keith: Wacth this replay--can;t see it in the stretch replay, but when Hammer gets out, he runs up on maybe Equinox Bi and he has to check Vivid Photo-- not an excuse from me, but I think if he lets him roll wide, he is at least 2nd Posted at: 2:41 Tim : 6-12-2-3 is the order of finish. Posted at: 2:41 Tim : They're at the wire in 1.51.2, Corleone Kosmos and a photo from there. Posted at: 2:40 Tim : They're at the 3/4 in 1.23.1, the first four are 9-6-2-4 Posted at: 2:39 Tim : They're at the 1/2 in 55, the first four are 9-5-6-2 Posted at: 2:38 Tim : They're at the 1/4 in 26.4, the first four are 9-5-2-10 Posted at: 2:38 jerry: that's about all my fans will have left if i don't pick some winners soon -- Allstar Blue Jean ($3.40) and Artstreos ($6.60) is all so far. (Had Rob Roy as second choice, which is why Gisser is much smarter than i.) Posted at: 2:36 Tim : It's post time and my turn to call the race! Heeeeeerrrreeee they COME! Posted at: 2:36 Keith: Tim- no wonder the pop machines in Ohio won't take them. Posted at: 2:36 Wondering: As a gambler, I will be most interested to see if they hit the $100K guarantee Posted at: 2:35 Tim : Keith, I think the new issue of the PA state quarter has Conners picture on it, including sideburns. Posted at: 2:35 clumsy: i think i hold the lead for typos so far Posted at: 2:34 jerry: $100,000 guranateed Pick 4? Vivid (maube with M Son) - Lis Mara - Posses The Magic - Donato Hanover? Gonna be a lot of winners if that pairing comes in! Posted at: 2:34 jerry: i can't even imagine how this race sets up. other than with two trailers i think Hammer will be forward-going from the start. How much traffic Corleone Komsos and Majestic Son see is key to them. i think the winner almost needs a good trip in this bunch. Posted at: 2:33 Keith: How will this huge field affect the race? Posted at: 2:31 Keith: Geez Gerry, you sound like you work for the state of Pa racing commission or something Posted at: 2:31 jerry: Thank you, Tim -- and Roger! Did i mention that the three favorites for the Hambo are all PA-sired -- in fact the same horse, Andover Hall? Posted at: 2:30 Keith: Perhaps I am a bit Jaded myself, here, butI have a problem with no charted line on Jaded-- I know he shows a 2:003 win, which gets him qualified, but this is unfair to the bettors and fans Posted at: 2:29 Tim : I'm sticking with Corleone Kosmos. He has been racing very game and should get away not too poorly in this big field. Jerry, I noticed that Hammer has a "You've Got a Friend in Pennsylvania" bumper sticker on the shaft of his racebike. Posted at: 2:28 jerry: i wouldn't know how to decipher Jaded in here, but somebody, possibly from overseas, made a show of belief early. Other than that, i think it's a square board so far. And isn't it strange to see Sand Vic at 17-1, the defending champion? Posted at: 2:28 Keith: Tim-- beat you to that post by a minute, lol. Too bad we can't get an auto-refresh--maybe next year. I don't see Jaded--apparentky two breaks in his last three. Why didn't he havde to qualify? No charted line--or is it just missing from my program? Posted at: 2:27 Keith: I watched video of Vivid's last start-- Looked like he was only asked to trot the last 1/4 and Roger seemed to really think he would get up. Another 50 yards and he would have. Posted at: 2:25 Tim : Let's turn the page to the 8th. 15-1 morning line Jaded is now 2-1. Any comments on that? Posted at: 2:24 jerry: i'll say it once and then promise not repeat it -- Vivid Photo went the best race mile of 2006, bar none, on Hambletonian Day last year, PP10 and three-wide before the half to uncovered to challenge, and held gamely until the last few steps, beaten less than two lengths. If the gods have any sense of justice, amends will be made today, more on the lines of Hambletonian 2005. Majestic Son might've been my pick if he had a better post, but PP9 in a 12-horse field -- plus Vivid and Hammer- sway me to make him an Exacta underside mate. Posted at: 2:24 Keith: Nat Ray in 12--something to watch---the 5 Jaded 15-1 on the ML is the currebt fave at 2-1! Posted at: 2:23 Keith: And I put an asterisk next to Cambest...another story for my next book, perhaps. Posted at: 2:22 jerry: Cambest TT1:46.1, Holborn Hanover 1:46.4, Primetime Bobcat and now With Anticipation 1:47.2. Posted at: 2:18 Keith: Huge mile-- 2nd start Nat Varty. He's obviously done a nice job picking up this one off the claim. Posted at: 2:13 Tim : I believe that is the second fastest all time pacing mile in the history of the sport. Not a bad claim for $75,000!!! Posted at: 2:13 jerry: With Anticipation bulls out of pcoket and wins with daylight in 1:47.2 -- one of the 5 fastest miles ever, i believe. 5-6-3-4. i had no excuse, though the 5 had the perfect trip. The winner was 27-3-5-13 for the year prior to this race; second start after claim by Varty. Posted at: 2:13 jerry: 52.3 for Ewie stringing them, 5-1, 3 gapped, 2-4 outside, 3/4s in 1:20.2 Posted at: 2:12 jerry: 52.3 for Ewie stringing them, 5-1, 3 gapped, 2-4 outside, 3/4s in 1:20.2 Posted at: 2:11 jerry: Ewie insisted on lead in 25.4 1-5-3-2 Posted at: 2:10 jerry: good memory, Keith the morning line is very good in this race Ewie 3 lengths off gate, the 5 the big leaver 5-1-2-3 off the gate, with 3 moving early Posted at: 2:10 Tim : Tetrick comments update: We have heard none. Posted at: 2:08 Keith: Didn't an even younget Tetrick get taken down in the Jugette a few years back on a (imo) questionable call. He was very upset then, but came back and won a race later on the card--he will be fine with PP, if she is good enough. Posted at: 2:07 jerry: At least half the respect is misplaced, but thanks. My turn for running commentary. Posted at: 2:07 Tim : I have so much respect for both of you guys, I just boxed PSetc and JKCU, going against my own selections. I'm buying if I cash. Posted at: 2:06 jerry: Nobody respects Tetrick more than i -- it will be a good test if he doesn't let this big defeat bother him with the Pampered Princess drive. He's won two $1,000,000 races, but THIS is the pressure cooker, and the Hambo is the grand waltz of the Big Dance. A step on the road to greatness for TT if he bounces right back. Posted at: 2:03 Keith: Western Ace--comes off a sick scratch-makes him hard to play. Ewie Duncan a good valye at 9-2. Watch Psiluvuheartbreaker--costly break last time but the horse fits wekk wuth these and is the longest sho ton the board (has nothing to do with him being Ohio-bred With Anticipation stepped up off the claim with a qulaity effort and may be good, too. Posted at: 2:02 Tim : Current favorite is Western Ace at 2-1, followed by With Anticipation and Ewie Duncan at 7-2. Jerry, your horse is a real value at 5-1. Posted at: 2:02 jerry: Here's how i see this race #7: Ewie Duncan N broke last time and in 2 of last 3, PSetc. broke last time; Western Ace and Art Maker are off sick scratch; With Anticipation and Francam have been close without winning recently. That seems to leave the 4 -- great in the Haughton elim, blocked in the Haughton final, and fair after a three-week layoff last time. Well, i look up, and he's 7-2. Posted at: 1:58 Tim : Let's look at the Open. Western Ace is back at The Big M for the first time in about a month and that last start found him posting a lifetime best effort. I look for him to return close to that form here. With Anticipation just missed in the Open last week after being moved up off a claim. He seemed to respond well to Dube's handling. A like effort should get him another big piece here. Given his recent performances, Ewie Duncan has been the best when he stays flat. And in is last 4 starts, there is a 50% chance that will happen. It's his first draw inside in a while. Right now the public likes 5-4-3. Posted at: 1:58 Tim : Brennan had the whip tucked as he went by. A very strong finish for her. Everyone in the press box was worried about the "Bridge Jumpers" if ST did not make the board. There was A LOT of show money at stake there. I will pass along any Tetrick quotes. Posted at: 1:50 Keith: Gerry I wondered the same-- if she lost her wind. Not questioning Tetrick, either. Just womdering aloud. Posted at: 1:49 jerry: Tim, let us know if there are any Tetrick quotes, please. Posted at: 1:48 Keith: Hana Hanover pays $10.40 Exacta 2-3: $27.20 playable Tri 2-3-6: $99.70 Super 10 cent $43.16 ($431.60 on a dollar) Well, my P6 would be alive Posted at: 1:48 jerry: Sorry, Giss, she held second. Great mile for the Majestic Son man. Wonder if ST had her air shut off rating the pace? Posted at: 1:46 Keith: Nope-Tempo was 2nd or 3rd--didn't stop as bad as I thoungt. Looked like Tetrick should (perhaps) have let her roll a bit--when you slow fractions like he did, you let othewr horses in the race. Kudos to Brennan- a perfect trip. 2-3-6-5 Official Posted at: 1:46 Keith: HANA HANOVER SHOCKS IN 1:49.3-EQUALS STAKES AND TRACK RECORD. Southwind Tempo finishes poorly, off the board perhaps? Posted at: 1:45 Keith: Tetrick just a passenger to 3/4 1:22.1 3-2-10-1 Posted at: 1:44 Keith: Tempo to the lead past quarter Half in 54 - a breather- 3-2-1-10 Posted at: 1:43 keith: At the quarter in 26 2-1-7-3 8 broke at strat Posted at: 1:43 Keith: I like the idea of her trying older mares--we see that kind of thing with the T-breds a lot. If she beat them, she could stake a claim to HOTY. Gate in motion for the Mistletoe Shalee. Posted at: 1:42 jerry: The advantage i could see to ST going in the Jug or somewhere else is that i'm not sure she could/should be Horse of the Year without a defeat of either older mares or her male age peers. She can beat up on this division, but what does that prove? My theory on HOTY is that it should be the horse that can beat all other horses on his/her gait, unless it's been a really mixed year and only one (ST) had a super-standout winning spree. Dissenters? Posted at: 1:40 Keith: a slight delay, perhaps. The #4 Me And My Baby in the paddock for equip repair Posted at: 1:39 Tim : That would be 3-3-6-1-5-4 Posted at: 1:38 Keith: Tim-- I am gonna run out and put a $1 to sho won each of the other 9 to show. Worst case, I lose $6.80. Nice having a self-serve right outside the door of my office, lol. Posted at: 1:37 Tim : CORRECTION: Pipi yes, Don't Blink, no. I meant 4, PP, in the Hambo. Posted at: 1:37 The Giss: Tempo back to 1-5 and we either had a tote freeze or a reset post time becvause we no show 5 minutes to post, nearly four minutes after tehy showed 6 minutes Posted at: 1:36 jerry: Tim: Pippi Whitestockings and Don't Blink Twice? Really? Posted at: 1:36 Tim : The show pool is currently $59,858 and $55,414 of it is on ST. Posted at: 1:35 Keith: Not playing it but gonna go 2-3/1-2-3/3/3-4-6/2-5/2-4-- a $72 ticket if my math is right. Certainly playable with the two positive payout angles. Posted at: 1:34 Tim : Jerry, I don't think putting ST in the Jug would be a good idea. The speed of those heats in recent years, vs. those of the Juggette, are quite a bit different. I would not be inclined to expose a nice filly like her to that and chance gutting her from that day out. My pick six pick is 3-3-6-1-5-1. If that hit, I don't think it would give you too much help with the tuition!!! Posted at: 1:34 jerry: My Pick 6 is 3-4(!)-3-3-2-2. Posted at: 1:32 Keith: 6 minutes to the Mistletoe Shalee and they are parading--Southwind Tempo sure looks like she could beat the boys-- and she is 2-5! Posted at: 1:32 Keith: Tim.. We start the Pick 6 here--must win, a $10K carryover. Are you chasing this one at all? I am out based on my current bankroll (and a kid in college and another starting in fall '08), but it seems worth a play with the 1-2 punch of must-win and carryover. I wonder if Northfield handicapper extraordinaire John Cahill is playing this one. Posted at: 1:30 jerry: When i think Hall of Fame this week, i think Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn. Blanton Collier? (i know who he is.) Brower just made a good point -- Rainbow Blue was 1-9* in this race a few years back, but made a break in Deadman's Curve, that area around the quarter pole that has also had breaks from The Panderosa, C R Kay Suzie et al. (Little Jan and Dean reference there for those with long memories.) Posted at: 1:29 Tim : Southwind Tempo is near flawless this year and is coming off a lifetime best tying effort in her last start. A prohibitive favorite, but a justified position to be in. Keith, I agree with your call of Hana Hanover. She apparently liked her new driver and track when she easily stretched out a new career best here last week. She could give Southwind all she can handle. They are currently 1-5 and 7-1, respectively. Posted at: 1:28 Keith: Sasm Mckee likes Hana Hanover. There goes any chance, lol. I still have 14 races at Northfield to finish handicapping, too. Not exactly the kind of purses we are discussing here, tho. Posted at: 1:27 jerry: Here comes Southwind Tempo, and i think the question of ST vs. the boys is as interesting a question as Pampered Princess vs. the boys, maybe even more so since pacing mares have rarely beaten males, whereas it happens quite a bit on the diamondgaited side. Do you guys think she could beat Tell All, Southwind Lynx, and Always A Virgin? Posted at: 1:26 Blanton Collier: Okay, special pointy ball kudos to Gene Hickerson, the man who created the role of the pulling guard and led Jim Brown to all his touchdowns Posted at: 1:26 Keith: Hana Hanover is an interesting one-- just 11 career starts and just five this year,,, I like her racing style--if they lock it up here and Tempo gets stung, there may be an upset..not likely, but she is an anknown quantity, really Posted at: 1:25 Tim : Guys, please lets not use the terms "football" and "soccer" in the same sentence. Especially since you are in hotbeds like Ohio and Pennsylvania! And certainly not during Hall of Fame weekend. Big cheer to Thurman Thomas!!! Posted at: 1:25 Keith: In the Mistletoe Shalee --race 6- up in 18, Southwind Tempo opens at 1-9. What price makes her "playable" as a flat bet? 2-5? She hasn't been that high in her last six and probably won;t be today. Posted at: 1:24 jerry: There's a simulcasting conference in September, and Teena from my office is going. i'm going to ask her to bring up the various units of measure in the payoffs, vs. a straight $2. That's maddening, unless you can convince me that that's the way fans like it -- show me the survey! Posted at: 1:23 Tim : Thats 6 straight for Artstreos, 4 straight at the Meadowlands, and a new lifetime mark of 1.50.4. 6.60 to win. Exacta 3-6 66.40. Trifecta 3-6-8 220.10. Posted at: 1:20 Keith: I am a huge fam of Argentine soccer, err, futbol, and of course several Argentine pacers and trotters have had success in the US, even though they are not standardbreds. Wow- Artstreos very impressive-- yet another lifetime mark after spending his freshman campaign and the beginnig of the year in Eastern Canada-- even at $6.60, you can buy a lot of lox with that. 4 of 13 last year an djust $3200. Posted at: 1:20 jerry: Keith -- and the winner was not claimed! (It wasn't a claiming race? Don't be picky!) Posted at: 1:19 Tim : At the wire in 1.50.4, it's 3 to win and 6-8-5 Posted at: 1:18 Tim : At the 3/4 in 1.22, it's 5-2-3-4 Posted at: 1:17 Tim : At the half in 53.3, it's 2-5-1-3 Posted at: 1:16 Tim : At the quarter in 26.3, it's 5-1-2-3 Posted at: 1:16 jerry: Coach Keith, i'm wearing a Brazil national football (er, soccer) shirt right now -- Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Kaka -- boy, are they good athletes! And we're watching some very good equine athletes today on this big card. Posted at: 1:14 Tim : I'll take Artstreos also, but I do like Southwind Jason from the outside in here. He hasn't seen a mile track in quite a while and has pretty competitive at the tracks he's seen. Could break out a bit, he's getting bet at 6-1. How did he look at Northfield the night he won, Keith? Posted at: 1:13 Coach Keith: Just a note here-- early on, I may be in and out a little bit. trying to cover my regular work here at Northfield and get set for the start of the soccer season for the girls High School team I coach...finalzing bus schedules, checking health foems and the like-- pre season officially starts Monday, although we conditioned for an hour or so this AM Posted at: 1:12 The Giss: Artstreos is logical but I like Burke and the birthday boy Yannick Gingras with Our Man Hammer a bit better-just think he is sitting on a big effort. - of course with both at 2-1, not a lot of value--very even board only a couple over 10-1 Posted at: 1:10 jerry: By the way, if i forget to mention it later, i pick Donato Hanover, because i think he has the biggest motor, and because of the last time we did a blog, Breeders Crown night, where Donato was one of the few horses to overcome a tough trip and win, whereas Pampered Princess went down to Hambo Oaks favorite Possess The Magic. But i notice a lot of horsemen going for the filly over the colt. (And the three favorites are all PA-sred -- hooray!) Posted at: 1:10 jerry: This is a difficult race for me to handicap, because you have a horse who's been close without winning at M (#2), a horse who was much better against lesser and now comes in with Lasix (#1), and a horse who has raced once since July 6, but that was a big win against lesser with him 1st time Lasix, 2nd time today. So i make it simple and just go with Artstreos, who's 5 for 5 on this side of the border -- "ceiling unlimited" for me. Posted at: 1:08 Kerith: Don't know about Gerry, but my family has three-- a regular and two of the large ones-- when we cracked the top on one, we kept it as a camping grill. Posted at: 1:06 tubby: We do, but you can tell from the size of me that i don't eat enough lean-no-fat fish from the Foreman's grille -- it's more likely the hot buffalo chicken wings at the loal Kokomo's- anybody visiting the Harrisburg area, go to Kokomo's on Wednesdays for their reduced-rate wings. Posted at: 1:05 Tim : It's the post parade for the 5th and the favorites are Artstreos at 9-5 and Our Man Hammer at 5-2. Posted at: 1:04 Tim : It's a very George Foreman day here as he will once again be presenting the Hambo Trophy to the winner. They have already done several interviews and he is now available for autographs to the fans. They are also giving away a bunch of the famous grills, which are all autographed. I guess it's no coincidence that his trainers name is George. Jerry, do you have one of those grills? Posted at: 1:02 Keith: Actually, price posting varies from track to track--yet another item in our sport that is not standardized and you bring up a good point. Tracks that offer ten cent supers skew the true payoffs when converted to $1 or $2 amounts --of course, as a publicity flack, it gives us something to write about, lol. We post both $1 and $2 prices on tris and supers at Northfield, unless there is only one winning dollar. Posted at: 1:02 old fashioned: You guys may be more used to it than i am, but i wish that all payoffs were reported in $2 terms, so you can see the real comparison among the prices. Trifecats and Pick 3s are listed to $1, and Superfectas for 10 cents, and i have to multiply big numbers by 20 to mark my program. You fellows may know better -- are most Superfecta bets made to the 10-cent base these days -- is that why they post the payoff that way? Posted at: 12:57 Tim : I haven't been hitting to well either until last night. I stopped at Tioga Downs on my way donw here and couldn't do anything wrong. A very bettable card yielded dividends for me for once. I don't plan on giving it back today, either. Posted at: 12:55 jerry: clever drive by Gingras there, and class has proven more important than speed today Posted at: 12:55 Keith: If my math is right, I will be covering races 6,9 and 12-- The Mistletoe Shalee, the US Pacing Championship and the Oliver Wendell Holmes Posted at: 12:54 Keith: I have been in a horrible slump lately--picking a lot of winners, but not cashing tickets. I had $10 to win on that one and am probably done for the day. When you are slumping, there is a tendency to press. instead of letting the plays come to you. Posted at: 12:52 Tim : I will take races 5,8, and 11 for the race running commentary. Posted at: 12:52 jerry: Good job, Keith. And all four winners so far have been claimed. Posted at: 12:50 Tim : Keith, you called that one at 7-1. Posted at: 12:50 Tim : Keith, you called that one at 7-1. Posted at: 12:50 jerry: My Fella opens up at 3/4 in 1:22.1, with Rob Roy coming to him...and Rb Roy goes right by late in 1:50. Looked like 8-3-2-9, Gingraswinning on his borthday. Posted at: 12:50 jerry: the check was left outside past the 1/4, then brushes up for the lead after the 26.1 1/4 and cleared at the half in 54...3-4-10-1 Posted at: 12:48 jerry: My Fella at 3-2*, W Image at 7-2, Rob Roy at 8-1 ... off the gate, the leavers are 4 and the whole outer tier, the 10 fastest of all Posted at: 12:48 Keith: We should also point out as we discuss commentary that Tim is on-site at M1, I am watching on a simulcast screen in my office and I believe Gerry is watching on his computer. There will be a slight delay on my comments and a slightly longer delay on Gerry's- back to you, gerry. Posted at: 12:47 Keith: I have always liked Rob Roy Mattgregor-- he won a couple Invites here at Northfield, but I have always perceived him as a half-mile track horse. 8-1 is a good price if it holds Posted at: 12:46 Tim : Jerry, after watching the eliminations last week and seeing how they lined up after the draw, I believe that the situation is right for the filly Pampered Princess to find an excellent trip and make her mark in this historic race. Keith, the weather is beautiful. Sunny, warm and 85 degrees. Perfect conditions for this fantastic card of racing. Posted at: 12:45 jerry: How about i do the Blog's "race-running commentary" on races 4, 7, 10, and 13 if we get there before our 4:30 deadline? You guys can pick which of the other races you do. Posted at: 12:44 jerry: When i think of "us" in a harness racing sense, i almost always have Canada included in my mind -- it's usually thought of as the North American scene, and then the "foreign" scene in my little mind. By the way, the #8 horse in the 4th is 9-1, he has a claim on him, and the first three winners were all claimed. That said, i like #7, Whitesand Mirage, even though the horse stepping up in the 3rd race off a win didn't do well. The #3 is your $5.00 favorite. Posted at: 12:42 Keith: When we talk about foreign angles, of coures, Pampered Princess is also Canadian-owned, while Please Poppy has Norwegian ownership. Posted at: 12:42 Keith: Hi Tim-- what'the weather like at "The Swamp?" Posted at: 12:41 Keith: I think the story is Pampered Princess, especially after this year's Belmont. There are a number of "foreign horses," and although I am pretty sure you mean Adrian Chip, we need to remember that Laddie is a Paula Wellwood-trainee and the US has not yet annexed Canada. Posted at: 12:40 jerry: Hi. Tim. Which scenario do you fellows see happening in the Hmbletonian? Posted at: 12:39 Tim : Good afternoon gentlemen, it's good to be here with you today. Posted at: 12:38 jerry: He's a back-class horse who hasn't been in claimers recently. Also, what do you guys think of the Big Dance, The Hambletonian? Is the big story the 2YO champ coming back at 3, the gallant filly, or the foreign horse who readjusted quickly last week? Posted at: 12:36 Keith: I did notice the claims, only because one of our customers stopped me and pointed out the first two as I came in to my office. I guess we have to go with Rob Roy Mattgregor in the 4th, then, since a claim is entered. Posted at: 12:34 jerry: Keith, anything you notice in the first three races, other than all three winners got claimed? Posted at: 12:32 jerry: Hi, Keith. Tim, are you on yet? Posted at: 12:31 jerry: 12:30, and Jerry Connors checking in after the favorites won the first three races on Hambletonian Day. Posted at: 12:30 Keith: Good afternoon. Posted at: 12:27 |
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